Free trading tools
Break-Even Win Rate Calculator
Use this break-even win rate calculator to see what win rate a strategy needs for a given risk/reward ratio before fees and after estimated costs.
Best for
Traders checking whether a strategy win rate matches its reward/risk profile.
What you get
Break-even win rate, required edge, cost-adjusted threshold, and verdict.
Not for
Replacing full expectancy analysis or ignoring trade distribution.
Formula
Break-even win rate = risk / (risk + reward)
Example
At 1:2 risk/reward, the break-even win rate is 33.3% before fees.
Hexaplan verdict
Simple, clear, and useful for strategy filtering.
Break-even win rate formula
Break-even win rate equals risk divided by risk plus reward.
Break-even example
A 1:2 setup needs about 33.3% winners to break even before fees.
Common win-rate mistakes
- Chasing win rate without reward.
- Ignoring fees.
- Assuming average win equals planned target.
- Using tiny sample sizes.
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FAQ
Is a lower break-even win rate better?
Usually yes, but only if the target is realistic and executable.
What does 1:2 mean?
It means the planned reward is two times the planned risk.