Free trading tools

Monte Carlo Simulator

Test how losing streaks can affect your account.

Best for

Checking possible drawdowns and losing streaks.

What you get

Possible equity paths, drawdown range, streaks and risk-of-ruin clues.

Not for

Predicting the exact next trade sequence.

Formula

The simulator runs many trade sequences using win rate, average win, average loss and risk per trade.

Example

A profitable system can still show deep drawdowns when losses come in a bad order.

Hexaplan verdict

Good for stress-testing a strategy.

How Monte Carlo works

Monte Carlo changes the order of wins and losses to show how different paths can feel. It does not predict the future.

The goal is to see whether your risk per trade can survive bad sequences.

How to use this calculator

Enter win rate.
Add average win and average loss.
Choose risk per trade.
Run the simulation.
Check drawdown and losing streak ranges.

Common mistakes

Using perfect backtest numbers.
Ignoring worst-case paths.
Raising risk before checking drawdown.
Assuming smooth returns.
Using too few trades as input.

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FAQ

Does this predict my future equity curve?

No. It shows possible paths based on your inputs.

Why does the same strategy show different outcomes?

Because trade order matters. A losing streak early can change the whole account path.

What inputs should I use?

Use conservative numbers from a meaningful sample of trades.