Trade Expectancy Calculator

Use this trade expectancy calculator to estimate whether your trading stats create a positive edge. Enter win rate, average winner, average loser, risk per trade, account size, and trade count to calculate expectancy.

Best for

Checking whether your win rate and average win/loss profile create positive expected value.

What you get

Expectancy in R, account expected value per trade, 100-trade estimate, and an edge verdict.

Not for

Drawing conclusions from a tiny sample, cherry-picked trades, or stats that ignore fees and execution mistakes.

Formula

Expectancy = win rate x average win - loss rate x average loss

Example

50% win rate, 1.2R average win, and 1.0R average loss equals +0.10R expectancy.

Hexaplan verdict

Positive expectancy is useful only if costs, discipline, and drawdown are realistic.

Trading expectancy formula

Expectancy = win rate x average win - loss rate x average loss.

If the result is positive, the setup has positive average R before costs. If it is negative, the strategy needs improvement or different filtering.

Trade expectancy example

A strategy with a 50% win rate, 1.2R average winner, and 1.0R average loser has expectancy of +0.10R per trade before costs. Over many trades, that edge can matter, but only if execution stays consistent.

Why expectancy matters

Win rate alone does not define profitability. A low win rate can be profitable with large winners, and a high win rate can lose money if average losses are too large.

How to use this calculator

Enter account size and risk per trade.
Enter realistic win rate.
Enter average winner in R.
Enter average loser in R.
Review expectancy and account EV.
Compare the estimate with your real journal results.

Common expectancy mistakes

Using too few trades.
Ignoring fees, spreads, and slippage.
Mixing different strategies into one stat.
Overweighting one unusually large winner.
Assuming backtest expectancy will match live execution.

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FAQ

How do I calculate trade expectancy?

Multiply win rate by average win, then subtract loss rate multiplied by average loss.

What is good expectancy in trading?

Positive expectancy after costs is the goal. What counts as good depends on trade frequency, drawdown, capital, and consistency.

Can a low win rate be profitable?

Yes. A low win rate can be profitable if average winners are large enough compared with average losers.

Why use R instead of dollars?

R normalizes results by planned risk, making it easier to compare trades with different position sizes.

How many trades do I need?

More is better. A small sample can be heavily distorted by luck, market regime, or one unusual trade.