Free trading tools
Trade Expectancy Calculator (EV per Trade)
Calculate gross and net expected value per trade from win rate, average win, average loss, fees, and slippage.
Best for
Reviewing strategy edge after a sample of trades.
What you get
Expected value per trade and break-even context.
Not for
Judging a strategy from one or two trades.
Formula
Expectancy = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss). Subtract average fees and slippage for net expectancy.
Example
A 50% win rate with a $200 average win and $120 average loss gives $40 gross expectancy per trade before costs.
Hexaplan verdict
Useful for strategy reviews.
Trade expectancy formula
Trade expectancy = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss). Net expectancy then subtracts average fees and slippage per trade.
For example, a 50% win rate with a $200 average win and $120 average loss produces $40 gross expectancy: (0.50 × $200) − (0.50 × $120). If average costs are $8, net expectancy is $32 per trade.
Expectancy describes a long-run average, not the outcome of the next trade. It is only useful when the sample is honest and includes fees, slippage, and mistakes.
How to use this calculator
- Enter win rate.
- Enter average win.
- Enter average loss.
- Review expected value per trade.
- Compare it with fees and slippage.
Common mistakes
- Using too small a sample.
- Ignoring fees.
- Removing bad trades from the stats.
- Confusing win rate with edge.
- Not updating the numbers over time.
Related trading calculators
FAQ
Can a strategy lose often and still be profitable?
Yes, if average wins are large enough compared with average losses.
How many trades do I need?
More is better. A tiny sample can be misleading.
Should fees be included?
Yes. Fees and slippage can turn a small edge negative.