Free trading tools
Prop Firm ROI & Expected Cost Calculator
Estimate expected attempts and total fees to funded, pass and first-payout odds, blowout risk, and fee ROI before you buy a challenge.
Best for
Comparing prop firm challenges before buying one.
What you get
Expected attempts and fees, pass chance, payout chance, blowout risk, expected value and ROI range.
Not for
Guaranteeing a funded account or replacing the firm rules.
Formula
The tool compares challenge fee, payout, win rate, average R and drawdown rules across many possible outcomes.
Example
A high pass rate can still be weak if the first payout chance is low or the fee loss is too common.
Hexaplan verdict
Use it before paying for a challenge.
How prop firm ROI works
A prop challenge is only worth taking if the payout chance is strong enough for the fee and rules. The calculator compares the cost of failure with the possible payout.
Drawdown rules matter as much as win rate. A setup can look profitable and still fail if the challenge rules are too tight.
Expected attempts are based on the simulated pass rate. Expected fees multiply the challenge fee by those attempts and add one activation fee, so reset discounts and changing conditions remain outside the estimate.
How to use this calculator
- Enter the challenge fee and payout split.
- Add account size and drawdown rules.
- Enter your win rate and average R.
- Review expected attempts and fees, pass chance, payout chance and expected value.
- Compare multiple challenge offers before buying.
Common mistakes
- Ignoring the daily drawdown rule.
- Using a win rate from too few trades.
- Forgetting reset fees.
- Assuming each retry will happen under identical rules.
- Only looking at pass chance.
- Risking too much to pass faster.
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FAQ
Does this tell me which prop firm to buy?
No. It helps compare the numbers. You still need to read the rules and check the firm.
Why can a high pass chance still be bad?
Because the payout chance, fee loss and drawdown rules can make the expected value weak.
Should I use my best backtest numbers?
No. Use conservative numbers that include bad periods.
How are expected attempts and fees estimated?
Expected attempts use the simulated pass rate and assume each new attempt has the same chance. Estimated fees include each challenge fee and one activation fee, but not reset discounts.